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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) – New figures from San Diego County have some doctors warn of another winter surge, even after a year of vaccinations.
“This is exactly the setup we had last year before the December and January surge,” says Dr. Seema Shah, the county medical director for epidemiology and immunizations.
An in-depth analysis of ABC 10News county data found that San Diego has higher numbers on a handful of critical COVID-19 metrics than it did at the same time last year, despite more than 81% of the eligible population being fully vaccinated and 90% partially vaccinated.
According to the data, for the week ended October 27, 2021, San Diego County had a 7-day average of 465 new COVID-19 cases per day. County data as of October 31, 2020 showed a 7-day average of 360 new cases per day.
The COVID-19 case rate is also higher. On October 27, 2021, the county had a rate of 12.2 cases per 100,000 residents. That’s almost double what it was on October 31, 2020 when the fall rate was 6.6.
“This is worrying,” says Dr. Shah, pointing out that most of the cases the county is seeing right now are from unvaccinated people. “We saw over 3,500 cases last week alone. And we shouldn’t be there.”
Other numbers show the impact these additional cases can have on the healthcare system. The current hospital capacity is 78%. A year ago it was 72%.
There were 141 deaths from COVID-19 from October 1st to October 26th. There were only 100 COVID deaths in all of October 2020.
While all of these numbers pale in comparison to last January’s San Diego COVID peak, they’re significantly higher than they were in June when the state of California lifted all restrictions related to the blueprint for a safer economy.
“We’ve certainly been on the roller coaster for the past 18 months,” said Brett McClain, executive vice president and chief operating officer of Sharp Healthcare.
Sharp has been conducting data analysis for all of its patients since the beginning of the pandemic. Based on the numbers they see now, McClain expects hospital capacity to grow 10-20% over the next two months.
He cites a return to personal work and school, the reopening of the economy, the advent of the Delta variant, and more people eating, shopping, and traveling, leading to increases in numbers, even with vaccines.
“Unfortunately, we’re seeing mini surges in the next 30-45 days,” says McClain.
But some other metrics in the county data suggest that any spike that comes won’t be as bad as last winter. Sharp Healthcare regards the Test Positivity Rate as its most important predictor of the future of the pandemic.
As of October 27, that number was 2.4%. On October 31 last year it was 3.0%.
“I think we are better positioned than last year,” says Dr. Christian Ramers, who expects a mild onset of winter compared to last year.
He points out that the 7-day average is higher because more tests are being done now. The county ran an average of 21,567 tests per day for the week ending October 27, 2021. That’s almost double the same amount of time last year when the county ran an average of 11,446 tests.
Ramers say more tests mean more people know they are infected and take necessary safety precautions like isolation.
He also says that, unlike last year, the vaccines will prevent most of these cases from leading to hospital admissions or death. And new treatments like monoclonal antibodies are giving the health system better tools to fight the disease.
“The vaccines basically take a disease that can be fatal to many people and turn it into mild or moderate disease,” says Dr. Ramers.
Still, Dr. Shah that people of San Diego need to get vaccinated if they haven’t already and continue to take precautions against infection if they have.
“We need to get back to basics,” says Dr. Shaw. “Wear your mask to indoor gatherings and get tested when you are sick.”
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