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San Diego –
The Californian exodus forecast in recent headlines is unlikely to happen anytime soon, UC San Diego researchers reported in a poll released Wednesday.
The UC San Diego survey polled more than 3,000 Californians, including 295 who answered the questions in Spanish. It turns out that nearly two-thirds of the population still believe in the “California Dream” of opportunity and prosperity.
“As the winter wore on, there were more and more reports in the news media of people leaving California – focusing mostly on wealthy Californians, the Elon Musks of the world,” said Thad Kousser, professor of political science at the University of California and San Diego Co-author of the study. “But what we saw were individual stories. We wanted to check whether there was any data behind these stories. “
Despite the looming loss of a seat in Congress and a handful of billionaires, the researchers found no unusual increase in the number of Californians planning to move out of the state.
Thad Kousser on San Diego News Fix:
The survey is part of a larger study led by UC researchers to examine California’s status as a dream state. Researchers examined data from the U.S. census, credit history, home ownership rates, venture capital investments, Internet search records, and the Franchise Tax Board to understand which Californians are likely to stay and which are considering exiting.
In other words, who still sees the California dream work for people like her, and who sees the Golden State tarnished? “Asked the researchers in their report on the survey.
Less than a quarter of respondents, 23 percent, said they were seriously considering leaving the state. That’s slightly less than the 24 percent who said they might move in a 2019 UC Berkeley poll.
The percentage of people considering moving from San Diego and Orange Counties was just 17 percent, lower than any other region in the state, down from 23 percent in 2019.
In Central Valley and Northern California, however, the number of people considering moving has increased to 29 percent and 37 percent, respectively, since 2019.
Although the 2019 Berkeley poll showed large differences among political parties on the issue of the excerpt, the UC San Diego poll found that the divide had narrowed.
In 2019, only 14 percent of Democrats planned to leave California compared to 40 percent of Republicans. In the current study, 21 percent of Democrats and 30 percent of Republicans are seriously considering moving.
“That’s interesting and surprising to us,” said Kousser. “It may suggest that the conversation about leaving the state in 2019 was driven by politics and ideology. And after the pandemic, it can be more driven by reality and people’s circumstances. The lives of Democrats and Republicans alike are affected by the pandemic. “
Ethnicity and income seem to influence respondents’ opinions. White and middle-class Californians were more concerned about their future in California than other demographics, while many young adults, Spanish speakers, Latinos, African Americans, and Asian Americans all said they still view California as golden in the poll.
75 percent of respondents ages 18 to 24 said they believe the California dream “still works for people like me,” while 57 percent of people ages 45 to 64 and 59 percent of those over 65 Year olds felt the same way.
Of the youngest respondents, 59 percent believe the state will be a better place for today’s kids, compared to 30 percent of those over 45.
Among the wealthiest survey participants with incomes above $ 150,000 a year, 59 percent thought their children would inherit a better state, and 42 percent of those with incomes below $ 25,000 a year believed so too. However, 32 percent of those with incomes between $ 50,000 and $ 75,000 were similarly hopeful for their children.
Kousser said it could be that the wealthiest respondents are already living the California dream, while low-income participants are hoping to make it happen. Middle-class Californians are pressured by the housing shortage and may try to buy homes elsewhere, he said.
“I think the lower-income people are people who are still emerging,” said Kousser. “These are potentially people who feel like they are on the way up … The real pessimism about California comes from middle-income people.”
Almost half of African American, Asian American, and Latin American respondents believe the state will be a better place for their children, while 59 percent of Spanish speakers share the same opinion. Only 37 percent of the white respondents believed that.
Kousser said respondents’ responses appear to reflect California’s demographic change; those whose population is increasing expressed more positive perceptions of their future here.
“We see that the fastest growing groups are those who see California as a better place for their children,” he said. “Those who are still on the rise are the ones who still believe in the California dream.”
Another facet of the study, conducted by Stanford and Cornell Universities, analyzed two decades of Franchise Tax Board data and found no evidence that millionaires are fleeing the state despite increased taxes on high wage earners.
A separate analysis by Cornell University gave the parable of the Golden State a different note. It found that California’s share of US venture capital dollars has grown from a third of the national total in 1995 to almost half by 2021, far dwelling on other large states like New York, Florida and Texas.
In the first quarter of 2021, California’s share of venture capital funding was 48 percent, the study reports. New York received 15 percent of that funding for the quarter, Texas and Florida 2 percent each.
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